Rain, Severe Weather Chances Increase

Rain and severe weather chances look to increase across the Stateline this week as we enter a more northwesterly flow pattern, which typically brings multiple thunderstorm clusters to the region. Chance of rain increases overnight tonight, with showers and thunderstorms likely tomorrow morning. Many of us will likely wake up to rain tomorrow. But the severe threat doesn't come until the afternoon/evening.

The SPC currently has a level 2/5 SLIGHT risk for severe weather draped across the Stateline. As of now, all hazards will be possible, including tornadoes. Strong tornadoes are not expected. I think the highest severe threat will be along any remanent outflow boundaries that position themselves across the Stateline. Forecasting the position of these boundaries is next to impossible, as they are constantly modifying, or moving. We will have to wait and see. Latest HRRR guidance suggests thunderstorms fire along one of these said boundaries as early as 6/7p. These storms will slowly push east/southeast with time.

18Z HRRR at 9p local time tomorrow

Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected throughout the week this week as a boundary becomes stalled over the Stateline. We expect another potential chance at severe weather Monday, though the area could shift a bit as time goes on and finer mesoscale details become clearer. Below is the current SPC Day 3 outlook. It shows a level 2/5 SLIGHT risk up to the Stateline.