3/7 | Severe Weather Possible on Tue. 3/10

March has certainly been in like a lion across the United States, with a very active pattern that began early in March and is likely to stay around through at least the middle of next week. Our next chance for thunderstorms looks to be Tuesday (3/10), and models are hinting at yet another potential for severe weather.

Tuesday will start off beautifully with plenty of sunshine and temperatures quickly climbing from the low to mid 40s into the mid to upper 60s. Some areas could easily flirt with 70 degrees (the Euro model has us topping out in the mid 70s, though I think this is quite bullish). A warm front will quickly begin surging northward bringing in plenty of moist gulf air. NOAA's Experimental RRFS A model shows temps soaring into the mid 60s across northern Illinois, with dew points not far behind (low 60s), which is plenty for thunderstorm initiation this time of year.

As you can see in the above images, plenty of moisture exists for thunderstorm development IF the warm front can get far enough north, as just north of the warm front, conditions are far less favorable for severe thunderstorms.

Instability will be plentiful for thunderstorm development this time of year, with MUCAPE values ranging from 700-1600 J/KG across the area according to the RRFS.

Again, all of this is a conditional threat at this point, as it is uncertain how far north the warm front will actually be able to progress. If we're in the open warm sector (along and south of the front), then thunderstorms will have no problem getting going. If we're north of the front, the atmosphere lacks the lifting mechanisms and power needed for thunderstorm initiation.

So now for the part everyone is always wondering about. What kind of severe weather to expect. If storms can get going early enough, and you're north of the warm front, I think we could see an isolated large hail threat given that storms will be quite elevated at the time with ample cold air aloft and relatively steep lapse rates. Along and south of the front, all modes of severe weather will be possible, including tornadoes.

At this point, we aren't highlighted in any SPC outlook for severe weather, but that could very well change over the next day or two. We will continue to monitor this threat and post updates as needed.